Viral dynamics in patients with monkeypox infection: a prospective cohort study in Spain suner2023viral
Observational, prospective multicentre cohort study of outpatients with confirmed mpox (2022 clade IIb outbreak) in Spain (two hospitals and two sexual health clinics; June 28 to Sept 22, 2022). Participants self-collected longitudinal specimens from multiple body sites; MPXV DNA quantified by qPCR (copies per mL). Figure-derived CSV provides individual longitudinal viral loads (gene copies/mL) aligned to days from symptom onset for blood, pharynx (oropharyngeal swab in VTM), rectum (rectal swab in VTM), semen, and lesion swabs/scrapings (in VTM).
Analytes
blood
Mpox virus (MPXV) DNA quantification by qPCR on dried blood spot-derived blood specimen; viral load expressed as DNA copies per mL. Copy number determined using a linear dilution series of quantified MPXV DNA standard (AMPLIRUN Monkeypox virus DNA control, Vircell). Limit of detection stated as 4.0 log10 copies/mL for blood in figure legend (model used 4.04 log10 copies/mL).
Fitted by censored maximum likelihood. The red line is the median individual; the shaded region is the full range of a simulated cohort drawn from the fitted population, so it shows what simulating from this dataset would produce rather than a confidence interval, with dashed lines at the central 95%. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the censoring limit and entering the fit as "below this value" rather than being dropped. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.
pharynx
Mpox virus (MPXV) DNA quantification by qPCR from oropharyngeal (pharynx) swab placed in 3 mL viral transport medium; viral load expressed as copies per mL of viral transport medium, using quantified MPXV DNA standard (AMPLIRUN). Limit of detection for non-blood samples stated as 2.9 log10 copies/mL.
Fitted by censored maximum likelihood. The red line is the median individual; the shaded region is the full range of a simulated cohort drawn from the fitted population, so it shows what simulating from this dataset would produce rather than a confidence interval, with dashed lines at the central 95%. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the censoring limit and entering the fit as "below this value" rather than being dropped. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.
rectum
Mpox virus (MPXV) DNA quantification by qPCR from rectal swab placed in 3 mL viral transport medium; viral load expressed as copies per mL of viral transport medium, using quantified MPXV DNA standard (AMPLIRUN). Limit of detection for non-blood samples stated as 2.9 log10 copies/mL.
Fitted by censored maximum likelihood. The red line is the median individual; the shaded region is the full range of a simulated cohort drawn from the fitted population, so it shows what simulating from this dataset would produce rather than a confidence interval, with dashed lines at the central 95%. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the censoring limit and entering the fit as "below this value" rather than being dropped. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.
semen
Mpox virus (MPXV) DNA quantification by qPCR from semen specimen; viral load expressed as DNA copies per mL using quantified MPXV DNA standard (AMPLIRUN). Limit of detection for non-blood samples stated as 2.9 log10 copies/mL.
Fitted by censored maximum likelihood. The red line is the median individual; the shaded region is the full range of a simulated cohort drawn from the fitted population, so it shows what simulating from this dataset would produce rather than a confidence interval, with dashed lines at the central 95%. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the censoring limit and entering the fit as "below this value" rather than being dropped. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.
lesion
Mpox virus (MPXV) DNA quantification by qPCR from skin lesion material (vesicle fluid or dry scraping of scabs/scars) collected with swab and placed in 3 mL viral transport medium; viral load expressed as copies per mL of viral transport medium using quantified MPXV DNA standard (AMPLIRUN). Limit of detection for non-blood samples stated as 2.9 log10 copies/mL.
Fitted by censored maximum likelihood. The red line is the median individual; the shaded region is the full range of a simulated cohort drawn from the fitted population, so it shows what simulating from this dataset would produce rather than a confidence interval, with dashed lines at the central 95%. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the censoring limit and entering the fit as "below this value" rather than being dropped. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.