Viral dynamics of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and applications to diagnostic and public health strategies kissler2021viral
This study followed 68 people (90% male) during the NBA 2019 to 2020 season with frequent RT-qPCR to map SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA trajectories and 46 had acute infections. A single low Ct (<30) strongly indicates acute infection, and a second PCR within 48 hours helps tell whether someone is early (proliferation) or late (clearance) in infection.
Analytes
AN_OPS_SARSCoV2_ct
SARS-CoV-2 RNA gene copy concentration in combined anterior nares and oropharyngeal swabs. Results were reported in cycle threshold (Ct) values.
Fitted by censored maximum likelihood. The red line is the median individual; the shaded region is the full range of a simulated cohort drawn from the fitted population, so it shows what simulating from this dataset would produce rather than a confidence interval, with dashed lines at the central 95%. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the censoring limit and entering the fit as "below this value" rather than being dropped. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.
AN_OPS_SARSCoV2_viral
Estimated SARS-CoV-2 RNA genome copy concentration measured from combined anterior nares and oropharyngeal swab specimens. Viral load was derived by the study authors by transforming the corresponding Ct values using a Bayesian model implemented in Stan, and results are reported in genome copies per milliliter.
Fitted by censored maximum likelihood. The red line is the median individual; the shaded region is the full range of a simulated cohort drawn from the fitted population, so it shows what simulating from this dataset would produce rather than a confidence interval, with dashed lines at the central 95%. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the censoring limit and entering the fit as "below this value" rather than being dropped. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.