Estimating infectiousness throughout SARS-CoV-2 infection course jones2021estimating
This study analyzed viral load data from 25,381 German cases, including 9519 hospitalized patients, 6110 PAMS cases from walk-in test centers, 1533 B.1.1.7 variant infections, and the viral load time series of 4434 (mainly hospitalized) patients. Viral load results were then combined with estimated cell culture isolation probabilities, producing a clinical proxy estimate of infectiousness. Data were obtained from the ‘viral-load-with-negatives.tsv’ dataset in the GitHub repository of Jones et al. (2021). Samples lacking a known onset date or a detected positive test result were filtered out.
Analytes
swab_SARSCoV2_onset
The reference event is symtom onset. Viral load is semiquantitative, estimating RNA copies per entire swab sample, whereas only a fraction of the volume can reach the test tube. The quantification is based on a standard curve and derive a formula in which RT-PCR cycle threshold values are converted to viral loads. Viral load is estimated from the cycle threshold (Ct) value using the empirical formulae 14.159 - (Ct x 0.297) for the Roche Light Cycler 480 system and 15.043 - (Ct x 0.296) for the Roche cobas 6800/8800 systems. An estimated 3 percent of our samples were from the lower respiratory tract. These were not removed from the dataset because of their low frequency and the fact that the first samples for patients are almost universally swab samples. Samples from the lower respiratory tract are generally taken from patients only after intubation, by which point viral loads have typically fallen.
Biomarker: SARS-CoV-2
Specimen:
nasopharyngeal swab
Units: gc/swab
Participants: 314
Negative samples: 41
Positive samples (not quantifiable): 0
Quantifiable samples: 310
Limit of quantification: unknown
Limit of detection: unknown
swab_SARSCoV2_confirmation
The reference event is confirmation date. Viral load is semiquantitative, estimating RNA copies per entire swab sample, whereas only a fraction of the volume can reach the test tube. The quantification is based on a standard curve and derive a formula in which RT-PCR cycle threshold values are converted to viral loads. Viral load is estimated from the cycle threshold (Ct) value using the empirical formulae 14.159 - (Ct x 0.297) for the Roche Light Cycler 480 system and 15.043 - (Ct x 0.296) for the Roche cobas 6800/8800 systems. An estimated 3 percent of our samples were from the lower respiratory tract. These were not removed from the dataset because of their low frequency and the fact that the first samples for patients are almost universally swab samples. Samples from the lower respiratory tract are generally taken from patients only after intubation, by which point viral loads have typically fallen.
Biomarker: SARS-CoV-2
Specimen:
nasopharyngeal swab
Units: gc/swab
Participants: 25064
Negative samples: 4297
Positive samples (not quantifiable): 0
Quantifiable samples: 25064
Limit of quantification: unknown
Limit of detection: unknown