Monkeypox Outbreak 2022: Clinical and Virological Features of 30 Patients at the Sexually Transmitted Diseases Centre of Sant' Orsola Hospital, Bologna, Northeastern Italy gaspari2023monkeypox
Observational study of 30 laboratory-confirmed mpox (MPXV) patients seen at the Sexually Transmitted Diseases Centre of Sant’ Orsola Hospital (University of Bologna) in Bologna, Italy (20 June to 10 August 2022). Multiple specimen types (skin lesion swab, rectal swab, oropharyngeal swab, plasma, urine) were tested for MPXV DNA by real-time PCR and reported here as Ct values (with some negatives) at specific days after symptom onset.
Analytes
skin_lesion_swab
MPXV DNA detection by real-time PCR on skin lesion swab specimens; results reported as PCR cycle threshold (Ct).
Fitted by censored maximum likelihood. The red line is the median individual; the shaded region is the full range of a simulated cohort drawn from the fitted population, so it shows what simulating from this dataset would produce rather than a confidence interval, with dashed lines at the central 95%. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the censoring limit and entering the fit as "below this value" rather than being dropped. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.
oropharyngeal_swab
MPXV DNA detection by real-time PCR on oropharyngeal swab specimens; results reported as PCR cycle threshold (Ct).
Measurements only — no shedding model is fitted to this analyte, usually because it is sampled once per participant, leaving no trajectory to fit, or because nothing was ever detected. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the assay's censoring limit. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.
plasma
MPXV DNA detection by real-time PCR on plasma specimens; results reported as PCR cycle threshold (Ct).
Fitted by censored maximum likelihood. The red line is the median individual; the shaded region is the full range of a simulated cohort drawn from the fitted population, so it shows what simulating from this dataset would produce rather than a confidence interval, with dashed lines at the central 95%. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the censoring limit and entering the fit as "below this value" rather than being dropped. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.
urine
MPXV DNA detection by real-time PCR on urine specimens; results reported as PCR cycle threshold (Ct).
Measurements only — no shedding model is fitted to this analyte, usually because it is sampled once per participant, leaving no trajectory to fit, or because nothing was ever detected. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the assay's censoring limit. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.
rectal_swab
MPXV DNA detection by real-time PCR on rectal swab specimens; results reported as PCR cycle threshold (Ct).
Measurements only — no shedding model is fitted to this analyte, usually because it is sampled once per participant, leaving no trajectory to fit, or because nothing was ever detected. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the assay's censoring limit. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.