Presymptomatic viral shedding in high-risk mpox contacts: A prospective cohort study brosius2023presymptomatic
Prospective cohort of 25 high-risk contacts of clade IIb monkeypox virus (MPXV) cases recruited in Antwerp, Belgium (June 24–July 31, 2022). Participants performed daily self-sampling (anorectal, genital, saliva) and attended weekly clinic visits (blood, oropharyngeal, etc.). Samples were tested by an in‑house MPXV PCR (targeting the MPXV-TNF receptor gene) on an Applied Biosystems QuantStudio. Study documents presymptomatic MPXV DNA detection (Ct values) and culture of replication-competent virus from presymptomatic anorectal samples.
Analytes
serum
MPXV detected by in-house real-time PCR targeting the MPXV-TNF receptor gene run on an Applied Biosystems QuantStudio (cycle threshold values reported). Specimen: serum collected at clinic visits.
Measurements only — no shedding model is fitted to this analyte, usually because it is sampled once per participant, leaving no trajectory to fit, or because nothing was ever detected. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the assay's censoring limit. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.
saliva
MPXV detected by in-house real-time PCR targeting the MPXV-TNF receptor gene run on an Applied Biosystems QuantStudio (cycle threshold values reported). Specimen: self-collected saliva.
Measurements only — no shedding model is fitted to this analyte, usually because it is sampled once per participant, leaving no trajectory to fit, or because nothing was ever detected. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the assay's censoring limit. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.
anorectal_swab
MPXV detected by in-house real-time PCR targeting the MPXV-TNF receptor gene run on an Applied Biosystems QuantStudio (cycle threshold values reported). Specimen: anorectal swab (self-collected).
Measurements only — no shedding model is fitted to this analyte, usually because it is sampled once per participant, leaving no trajectory to fit, or because nothing was ever detected. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the assay's censoring limit. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.
oropharyngeal_swab
MPXV detected by in-house real-time PCR targeting the MPXV-TNF receptor gene run on an Applied Biosystems QuantStudio (cycle threshold values reported). Specimen: oropharyngeal swab collected at clinic visits.
Measurements only — no shedding model is fitted to this analyte, usually because it is sampled once per participant, leaving no trajectory to fit, or because nothing was ever detected. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the assay's censoring limit. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.
genital_swab
MPXV detected by in-house real-time PCR targeting the MPXV-TNF receptor gene run on an Applied Biosystems QuantStudio (cycle threshold values reported). Specimen: genital swab (skin swab from coronal sulcus for men or vaginal swab for women).
Fitted by censored maximum likelihood. The red line is the median individual; the shaded region is the full range of a simulated cohort drawn from the fitted population, so it shows what simulating from this dataset would produce rather than a confidence interval, with dashed lines at the central 95%. Open triangles are non-detects, drawn at the censoring limit and entering the fit as "below this value" rather than being dropped. See the modelling methods for what these estimates do and do not support.